Lap time data analysis suggests Pedro Acosta will threaten Ducati

It was so long ago now that Aprilia won the Americas Grand Prix that it almost feels like Ducati’s scorecard blip in MotoGP 2024 never happened.

Aside from Maverick Vinales’ brilliant triumph at the Circuit of the Americas, every grand prix rostrum has been topped by a representative of the Bologna contingent. Marc Marquez broke the cycle of GP24s doing all the winning with his domination of last weekend’s Aragon GP aboard his Gresini-run GP23.

But old or new, Ducati seems to be guaranteed week-to-week of winning.

Coming to the San Marino GP this weekend and the first of two events to be staged at Misano this month, owing to Kazakhstan’s cancellation, all eyes are on Ducati’s leading four in the championship.

For the last three years, the San Marino GP has been won by Ducati riders. Francesco Bagnaia won in 2021 and 2022, while Jorge Martin dominated in 2023 for Pramac to really kickstart his championship challenge that season.

After day one of the San Marino GP in 2024, the timesheets went to type. Bagnaia, despite feeling sore from his Aragon tangle with Alex Marquez last Sunday, was fastest with a 1m30.685s. He was shadowed by Aragon winner Marc Marquez, with Martin, Pramac team-mate Franco Morbidelli and Enea Bastianini rounding out the top five.

With 71 points covering Martin, Bagnaia, Marquez and Bastianini at the top of the standings, Friday’s one-lap pace hints at an intriguing weekend in these stakes. But, a closer look at the long run data from Friday afternoon’s hour-long Practice session suggests - of those Ducatis - Martin, Bagnaia and Marquez are the ones to watch.

In second practice, Martin put 18 laps on a soft rear tyre spread across several runs. His fastest lap was a 1m31.579s, which was posted on the 18th lap of that tyre’s life. Bearing in mind Sunday’s grand prix will be run over 27 laps, that’s some seriously impressive speed from the Spaniard as he looks to extend his 23-point lead in the standings.

By comparison with his closest championship rivals, Gresini’s Marquez put 11 laps on the soft rear tyre and also did a small four-lap run on a medium rear too. Marquez’s speed was good, the eight-time world champion posting a 1m31.364s. This was on a 10-lap soft, suggesting strong race pace but not quite to the same degree as Martin given the age of his soft tyre.

Marquez’s goal for the start of the weekend was to have the same feeling on the bike as he did at the Red Bull Ring. He said this was achieved and he’s in the hunt, but concedes both Martin and Bagnaia are a step ahead.

Bagnaia put 14 laps on a medium rear tyre with a best of 1m31.570s with nine laps on the compound, while at the end of his run his pace was 1m31.795s. That’s also very good, though question marks remain over Bagnaia’s fitness over a full race distance. He says he took some painkillers ahead of the afternoon session, which helped his physical condition, while the fact he had such a good day on the bike was what “I needed” after what happened in Aragon.

Over his flying lap, Bagnaia topped three out of the four sectors. KTM’s Jack Miller, who shadowed him late on in second practice to bag a place in Q2, noted that the world champion was particularly strong through Turns 1/2, while in sector three his speed is “embarrassing” in how good it is.

Bastianini doesn’t fare so well in Friday’s analysis. He put 12 laps on a medium rear tyre, his best a 1m32.066s - albeit at the end of his time on the compound. But that’s still someway off the top three Ducati riders right now and not the form he needs to be showing if he hopes to close down his 71-point deficit to Martin.

Taking an average pace sample, Marquez comes out on top with a 1m31.919s (based on a five-lap average); Bagnaia is next with a 1m31.989s (based on an eight-lap average); Martin follows at 1m32.091s (based on a six-lap average); and Bastianini at 1m32.484s (based on a four-lap average).

That data has cancelled laps and unrepresentative times removed from it, though it still doesn’t tell a wholly accurate picture given how each riders’ runs played out. Martin - who has been battling a stomach virus - noted that he spent a lot of time tweaking his bike’s set-up, which will have impacted his consistency.

Pedro Acosta will threaten Ducati

But there is one rider not on a Ducati who looks to pose a major threat to the Italian manufacturer following Friday’s running at Misano.

Pedro Acosta set the early pace in second practice on his Tech3 GASGAS and took several turns leading the timesheets on his KTM. The rookie came into Misano off the back of his first double podium weekend at Aragon, where he made a welcome return to form after several difficult rounds.

The KTM performed well at Misano last year, with test rider and wildcard Dani Pedrosa coming close to podiums in both races in fourth. Acosta has had some recent bike time at Misano when he tested WP suspension on a Moto2 bike. While that’s in no way similar to riding a 300hp MotoGP beast, that mileage will certainly have helped him hit the ground running on Friday.

At Aragon, Acosta spoke about “taking one step back to take two steps forward”. To get out of the rut he has found himself in since the summer break, Acosta’s Tech3 team reverted to settings he used at the start of the season which powered him to grand prix podiums in Portugal and America.

Despite a late tumble at Turn 8 in second practice, Acosta comfortably secured a direct place in Q2 in sixth on the timesheets. But his long run pace puts him firmly into the picture as a podium contender at Misano and possibly even in the victory frame.

The 20-year-old put 16 laps on a soft rear tyre on Friday afternoon. His best was a 1m31.301s with the tyre at 12 laps old, while he managed a 1m32.014s on his final lap with it. Based on a nine-lap average (which excludes cancelled and unrepresentative tours) his pace was 1m31.921s.

Impressive in race trim, if Acosta can do what he did at Aragon and qualify on the front row, or at least the first two rows, he is currently on course to be a major thorn in Ducati’s stars’ side at its home event.